NEW YORK, April 13, 2026 — U.S. equities opened Monday’s session on the back foot as two forces collided at the bell: President Donald Trump’s newly enacted blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude surging 8.14% to $104.40 per barrel and Brent up 7.43% to $102.30, while Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) — the first major bank to report first-quarter results — fell roughly 3% despite a headline earnings beat, dragged lower by a significant shortfall in fixed income, currencies and commodities revenue. The S&P 500 opened at 6,839.24, according to Investing.com data, before retreating toward the 6,781 level as the Hormuz shock continued to reprice risk assets in real time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed approximately 251 points, or 0.5%, at the open, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.2% in early trade. The CBOE Volatility Index climbed back above 20 to a session high of 21.58, erasing Friday’s closing reading — its lowest since the start of the Iran war in late February — in the span of a single overnight session.
The macro backdrop: Hormuz blockade takes effect at 10:00 AM ET
The immediate catalyst for Monday’s negative open was unambiguous. According to CNBC’s live market coverage, U.S. stocks fell on Monday as oil prices surged after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with peace talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend ending without a deal. Vice President JD Vance departed Islamabad without an agreement with Iranian officials, citing their unwillingness to halt nuclear ambitions, while Tehran reportedly sought control of the strait, war reparations, and access to frozen overseas assets.
U.S. Central Command confirmed the blockade would begin at 10:00 AM ET Monday, applying to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. The restrictions were described as applying exclusively to Iranian-port traffic, with transit through the Strait itself for non-Iranian-bound vessels intended to remain open — though market participants treated the announcement as a material supply disruption risk regardless. For a detailed breakdown of the blockade mechanics and Goldman Sachs’s $120 Brent Q3 base case, see PreMarket Daily’s Hormuz deep dive published this morning.
The geopolitical reversal was sharp. Last week, the S&P 500 rallied 3.6%, the Nasdaq jumped approximately 4.7%, and the Dow gained 3% — their best weekly performances since November — on optimism surrounding a temporary ceasefire. That ceasefire optimism evaporated over the weekend as the Islamabad talks collapsed. Futures had already signalled the reset: Dow futures dropped 517 points overnight, while S&P 500 futures lost 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.2% in Sunday evening trade.
The energy complex absorbed the geopolitical shock directly. Brent crude futures jumped approximately 8% to around $103 per barrel on Monday, recouping losses from last week. The effective closure of the key shipping route has driven energy prices sharply higher throughout the Iran war period, raising concerns about inflationary pressures and weaker global growth — and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts further or even revisit tightening. FOMC minutes from April 9 already flagged that rate hikes are back on the table as the vast majority of Fed officials warned inflation is running persistently above target.
Opening bell standout mover: Goldman Sachs (GS) — the blowout that the market rejected
Goldman Sachs was the single-stock story of Monday’s open, and its price action illustrated one of Wall Street’s oldest dynamics: the market trades expectations, not reported results. CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs shares were down 3% in the session despite the bank’s strong overall earnings, after it recorded disappointing trading results in its fixed income unit.
The headline beat
The firm’s first-quarter results, filed with the SEC on Monday morning and confirmed by StockTitan, were objectively strong at the headline level. Diluted EPS came in at $17.55, comfortably above the $16.49 consensus estimate tracked by LSEG, and above the upper end of analyst ranges. Total net revenues reached $17.23 billion, representing a 14% year-over-year increase, with return on equity of 19.8% and return on tangible equity of 21.3%. The firm returned $6.38 billion to common shareholders in the quarter.
The division-level miss that mattered
The problem was beneath the headline. FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) net revenues declined 10% year-over-year to $4.01 billion, falling meaningfully short of the FactSet consensus of approximately $4.83 billion — a miss of roughly $820 million. Within FICC, intermediation revenue dropped 13% to $2.95 billion, driven by lower revenue from interest-rate products, mortgage-related securities, and credit markets. FICC financing rose a modest 2% to $1.01 billion, providing only partial offset.
The firm’s other divisions performed strongly. Global Banking & Markets revenues climbed 19% year-over-year to $12.74 billion, ahead of the $12.13 billion consensus. Investment banking fees surged 48% to $2.84 billion, reflecting a sharp pickup in advisory activity, with advisory revenue alone up 89% year-over-year to $1.49 billion. Net equities revenue rose 27% to $5.33 billion, surpassing the $4.9 billion estimate. Asset & Wealth Management revenues grew 10% to $4.08 billion, with assets under supervision reaching a record $3.65 trillion.
CEO David Solomon described the first-quarter earnings report as “very strong,” pointing to the bank’s ability to capitalise on shifting market conditions. Nevertheless, the market’s response reflected the elevated bar that had been set for the bank following its near-95% share price surge over the prior twelve months. Premarket, GS had already dropped more than 4%, touching approximately $874, before paring some losses at the open. PreMarket Daily’s GS Q1 earnings preview had flagged the war-driven FICC volatility dynamic and the risk that intermediation revenues could diverge from elevated buy-side models.
Goldman’s result also opens the question of sequencing for the rest of the bank earnings week. Reuters and other wire services note that Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are all scheduled to report later in the week, with JPMorgan’s Q1 results due at 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday. The week-ahead setup at PreMarket Daily details the JPMorgan consensus EPS of $5.46, PPI release, and monthly options expiration converging this week.
Volume and price action analysis
Equity indices: a bifurcated open
The opening session reflected a nuanced split rather than a uniform risk-off move. The Dow bore the heaviest initial burden, opening down approximately 251 points, weighted by Goldman Sachs’s decline and broad financials weakness. The S&P 500’s retreat from its 6,839.24 opening print was relatively contained in percentage terms — the index shed roughly 0.4% in early trade — while the Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer, opening with a comparatively modest 0.2% decline. The divergence between the Dow’s financial-sector drag and the Nasdaq’s resilience suggests that technology names, which rallied sharply last week on TSMC’s record revenue beat and AI-related deal flow, were absorbing some of the energy-sector and financial-sector selling pressure as a relative safe harbour within equities.
Energy sector: the day’s standout gainer
With WTI at $104.40 and Brent at approximately $102.30 to $103, the energy sector opened as the session’s clear winner. Yahoo Finance’s live market blog confirmed the sharp commodity repricing as the primary driver of sector rotation at Monday’s open. Oil producers and related services names attracted buying interest as traders rotated into Hormuz-exposed commodity plays. The geopolitical risk premium in crude — which had temporarily compressed during last week’s ceasefire optimism — reasserted decisively.
VIX and volatility regime
The CBOE Volatility Index climbed to a session high of 21.58 early Monday after closing Friday at its lowest level since the start of the Iran war in late February. The speed of the VIX’s reversal — from a multi-week low to above 20 in a single session — is characteristic of geopolitical shock absorption rather than a fundamental re-rating. Historically, VIX readings between 20 and 25 represent an elevated-but-not-crisis volatility regime. The level is consistent with continued active options hedging by institutional players entering a week heavy with bank earnings and macro data.
Asia-Pacific and European context
Asia-Pacific markets set the overnight tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.72%, while South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.73%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.71%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.38% lower, though energy names outperformed within the index as Brent crude hovered near elevated levels. European markets opened mixed, with the U.K.’s FTSE 100 broadly flat and the French CAC 40 modestly higher — reflecting Paris’s stated intention to co-host a conference aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait. French President Emmanuel Macron said France and the U.K. would co-host that conference in the coming days, a diplomatic signal the market noted but did not aggressively price.
What to watch in the first hour
Goldman Sachs earnings call at 9:30 AM ET
The GS conference call with CEO David Solomon commenced at precisely the market open — 9:30 AM ET — creating an unusual dynamic where live management commentary was flowing simultaneously with opening price discovery. Analyst focus was expected to centre on three key areas: the FICC intermediation miss and whether management viewed it as cyclical or structural; the outlook for M&A given rising oil prices and dealmaking uncertainty from the Iran war; and capital return guidance given the $6.38 billion returned to shareholders in the quarter. Any commentary on the Hormuz blockade’s impact on corporate client behaviour could move the stock and the broader financial sector in the opening hour. MarketWatch was streaming earnings call developments alongside live index data.
Existing home sales data at 10:00 AM ET
The National Association of Realtors was scheduled to release March 2026 existing home sales data at 10:00 AM ET — the same moment the Hormuz blockade formally took effect. Economists expected the print to show approximately 4.055 million seasonally adjusted annualised units, a slight dip from February’s 4.09 million pace. Mortgage rates increased significantly during March, reaching around 6.64% by month-end, a headwind likely to have slowed transaction volumes. The data, while secondary to the geopolitical and earnings flows, serves as a leading indicator of consumer financial confidence in an environment where energy inflation is rapidly repricing household real purchasing power.
New York Fed Consumer Expectations Survey
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, covering approximately 1,300 household heads and measuring inflation and labour market expectations, was also due for release on Monday. Given that the Iran war has already driven CPI dynamics — with the March inflation print landing at 3.3% year-over-year — any further upward shift in consumer inflation expectations would carry Fed policy implications, potentially reinforcing the FOMC’s flagged willingness to consider rate increases if inflation remains persistently elevated.
Bank earnings sequencing for the week
Goldman Sachs’s mixed reception sets a complex template for the week’s remaining major bank reporters. CNBC confirmed that Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are all on the docket, with JPMorgan the next major catalyst on Tuesday. The broader question the market is now pricing is whether Goldman’s FICC shortfall was idiosyncratic — driven by Goldman-specific book positioning — or a sector-wide signal about fixed income intermediation revenues in the first quarter. If the latter, other FICC-heavy franchises face a similar sell-the-news dynamic regardless of headline EPS outcomes.
The first hour of trade on April 13, 2026 thus presents participants with a compressed agenda: absorb the GS earnings call commentary, price the 10:00 AM Hormuz blockade formalisation, monitor inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey, and position ahead of a week that by most measures represents the most consequential bank earnings sequence since the Iran war began in late February. The S&P 500’s opening print of 6,839.24 and its subsequent retreat toward 6,781 reflect the difficulty of that multi-variable task in real time. How the index closes relative to its prior Friday level of 6,816.89 will be the day’s primary summary statistic for markets navigating geopolitical shock and earnings season simultaneously.
This article is published by PreMarket Daily for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
