Goldman Sachs (GS) Q1 2026 earnings preview: consensus EPS $16.35–$16.86 and revenue ~$17B as war-driven FICC volatility and global M&A revival set up the strongest trading quarter in years

NEW YORK, April 13, 2026. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reports Q1 2026 earnings at 7:30 AM ET Monday — the first major financial institution to open the most analytically consequential bank earnings season since the 2020 pandemic, and it does so on the same morning the US Navy Hormuz blockade takes effect at 10 AM ET. Wall Street consensus: EPS of $16.35–$16.86 (approximately 16–19% growth from Q1 2025’s $14.12), revenue $16.66–$17.40 billion (+12–16% from Q1 2025’s $15.06 billion). Goldman is poised for a strong quarter built on three compounding tailwinds: extraordinary Iran war-driven FICC trading volatility across all five weeks of the first quarter; a global M&A revival that produced 24 mega-deals above $10 billion and 40 deals above $5 billion; and a rates and currency environment that generated sustained dealer flow across every asset class Goldman trades. Options markets are pricing a 5.8% implied move in either direction — more than double the 2.6% historical average — reflecting both the upside magnitude and the simultaneous blockade-driven macro shock.

The FICC trading windfall — what the Iran war did to Goldman’s desk

Goldman’s Global Banking and Markets segment — which contributed $10.7 billion in revenue in Q1 2025 — is the analytical centre of Monday’s report, and the FICC trading business within it is the line item that matters most. The case for a record or near-record FICC quarter is built on five weeks of multi-asset volatility that has no recent parallel. WTI crude swung from $67 pre-war to $115.80 at the Kharg Island peak, then crashed 16.41% in a single session on ceasefire news — a $21.39/barrel one-day move. Natural gas prices spiked across European and Asian benchmarks. The Fed’s FOMC minutes released Wednesday drove a Treasury yield repricing across the full curve. The dollar saw sharp swings while retaining safe-haven status. In every one of those asset classes, Goldman’s trading desk was active — and in every one, the bid-ask spreads and volatility premiums that generate dealer profitability were at multi-year highs. The FICC beat is not a forecast; it is the expected mechanical output of the best-documented five-week trading environment Goldman has faced since the March 2020 COVID shock.

The equity trading business provides a compounding second source of upside. The S&P 500’s extraordinary Q1 2026 range — from January highs at historically elevated Shiller CAPE ratios above 40, through the war-driven selloff, to the ceasefire relief rally — generated options flow, equity derivatives demand, and equity financing activity at levels that historically produce strong equity trading quarters for prime brokers at Goldman’s scale. Alphastreet noted that Goldman has maintained its #1 ranking in both announced and completed M&A and equity and equity-related offerings for multiple consecutive years — maintaining that position through Q1 2026’s deal-rich environment translates directly into advisory revenue at high margins. Each of the quarter’s landmark transactions — the Neurocrine-Soleno $2.9B VYKAT XR deal, the Pershing Square-UMG $64.4B bid, the AVGO-Google-Anthropic AI infrastructure structure — required structuring, financing, and hedging activity that flows through Goldman’s IB and equity businesses.

Investment banking — M&A revival and equity capital markets

Goldman’s investment banking division is expected to show meaningful revenue recovery in Q1 2026 against Q1 2025’s depressed levels. TipRanks’ bank earnings preview flagged that global deal activity accelerated significantly in Q1, with 24 mega-deals valued above $10 billion representing the most active M&A period in several years. Goldman’s position as the sector’s most advisory-fee-intensive franchise — and its historical #1 ranking in announced M&A — means that pipeline converts to fee revenue at a high rate when deals are completing. The war-period deals are the other IB variable: transactions announced during the conflict require structuring, risk management, and financing that generates flow regardless of headline macro conditions. Goldman’s forward pipeline commentary — which CEO David Solomon typically provides on the call — will be the most closely watched forward-looking indicator: whether the deal environment remains robust under renewed blockade uncertainty or whether corporate boards are pausing transactions as geopolitical risk reasserts itself.

The equity capital markets (ECM) business provides a third IB revenue stream. The Q1 2025 filings showed Goldman ranked #1 in equity and equity-related offerings — a position that the war period’s volatility made more challenging to maintain but also more valuable to execute when completed. Any IPO or secondary offering that priced during the conflict window generated extraordinary execution complexity that Goldman’s franchise is uniquely positioned to navigate for premium fees. For the broader earnings season context, Goldman’s IB tone sets the baseline for JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America’s own IB guidance calls later this week — if Solomon signals continued deal pipeline strength, the entire investment banking sector’s Q2 guidance framework is more confident; if he signals deal-pause under blockade uncertainty, that tone propagates across every subsequent bank call.

Asset and wealth management, Platform Solutions, and the Apple Card exit

Goldman’s Asset and Wealth Management segment contributed $3.68 billion in Q1 2025 revenue. For Q1 2026, the AUM picture is mixed: equity markets rallied into early January, sold off through the war period, then recovered through the ceasefire relief rally — leaving AUM at quarter-end approximately flat to modestly higher than December 2025 levels. The alternative investment performance is the swing factor: if Goldman’s private equity, credit, and hedge fund strategies generated strong returns in the volatile Q1 environment (which the commodity and rates volatility environment would support for well-positioned strategies), performance fee revenue on those strategies could contribute meaningfully. Goldman’s Platform Solutions segment — the consumer and transaction banking businesses — is expected to contribute approximately $650–700 million in Q1 2026. The Apple Card portfolio transition to JPMorgan Chase is ongoing; Goldman’s Q1 credit provision language on the Apple Card will be the final major disclosure before the transition completes. Any sign of accelerating charge-offs under the war’s consumer stress would be the segment’s negative wildcard. The more significant strategic question: how Solomon frames the Marcus retail banking strategy post-Apple Card — retreat toward the institutional franchise or continued consumer expansion — will carry more long-term investment thesis weight than any individual revenue figure in Platform Solutions.

The morning’s paradox — the war that is Goldman’s best catalyst is also the worst macro backdrop

Goldman’s earnings land on the most geopolitically charged morning of Q1 2026 earnings season. Yahoo Finance’s live market blog captured the setup precisely: the Hormuz blockade — implemented at 10 AM ET, approximately 90 minutes after Goldman’s 7:30 AM report — means investors simultaneously process a company-specific fundamental catalyst and a macro shock that reprices the global inflation trajectory, the Fed’s policy path, and the global growth outlook in real time. The analytical paradox: Goldman’s best-case earnings catalyst (sustained geopolitical volatility producing exceptional FICC flow) is simultaneously the worst-case macro backdrop for the equity market that is supposed to reward that beat. The blockade is, perversely, a second-order tailwind for Goldman’s Q2 trading desk: resumed oil and rates volatility from the re-escalated conflict generates the same FICC environment that made Q1 exceptional.

David Solomon’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A carry three specific forward-guidance elements that will move markets beyond the EPS headline. First: FICC forward colour — whether the blockade’s commodity volatility is already generating meaningful Q2 flow versus Q1’s pace. Second: IB pipeline — whether deal activity pauses under blockade uncertainty or continues on the strength of late-2025 M&A revival momentum. Third: consumer credit language — any signal that Apple Card or broader consumer stress is building reserve requirements beyond Q1 levels. For the Fed policy backdrop, Goldman’s own rate hold expectation sits at 98%+ probability for April 28–29 — the blockade has not changed that for the immediate meeting but has raised the June policy question materially. PreMarket Daily covers every session’s catalyst stack before the open. The rest of bank earnings week — JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Tuesday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, Netflix on Thursday after close — all take their tone from Goldman’s 7:30 AM print.