Micron Technology (MU) deep dive, March 29, 2026: Down 23% from all-time high as TurboQuant rattles AI memory

NEW YORK, March 29, 2026 — Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) delivered perhaps the most jarring paradox on Wall Street this week: a blowout earnings report followed by the stock’s worst six-session losing streak in nearly a year. Micron reported its most recent earnings on March 18, 2026 for fiscal Q2 2026, posting EPS of $12.20, which exceeded analysts’ expectations of $8.60 by 41.86%. Revenue reached a record $23.86 billion, up 196% year over year and 75% sequentially, driven by robust DRAM and NAND demand, especially from AI and data centres. Yet by Friday’s close, Micron had fallen 22% since March 18, when it closed at an all-time high and then reported results that far surpassed analyst estimates. The week crystallised a tension that now sits at the centre of the AI-hardware investment thesis: can record fundamentals survive a credible software threat to demand?

The business and market position

Micron Technology designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products globally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit, Core Data Center Business Unit, Mobile and Client Business Unit, and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments, providing DRAM, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), CXL-based memory, and NAND-based storage solutions.

Amid the volatility, Micron is positioning itself at the forefront of the coming AI hardware cycle. The company has officially commenced mass production of its next-generation HBM4 memory, engineered for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin architecture. Revenue for DRAM, NAND, HBM, and each business unit reached new highs in fiscal Q2. Micron’s fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in its company history through fiscal 2024.

In fiscal Q2, operating cash flows were $11.9 billion. Capital expenditures were $5.0 billion, resulting in free cash flow of $6.9 billion — a quarterly record for the company, exceeding its prior record in fiscal Q1 2026 by 77%. Capital expenditure outlook for fiscal year 2026 was subsequently raised to over $25 billion, up from the prior $20 billion guidance. It is the scale of that spending commitment — a bet on sustained AI-driven memory demand — that has become the core source of investor unease.

For broader context on how the technology sector has traded relative to energy and other cyclicals during this period, see the sector review for the week of March 28, 2026, which documents energy’s outperformance and communication services’ sharp underperformance.

The numbers: P/E vs sector average, revenue growth, EPS growth, margins

Valuation

The P/E ratio for Micron Technology stands at 16.87 as of Friday, March 27, 2026. That compares favourably to the US semiconductor industry average P/E of 38.6x, meaning MU trades at a meaningful discount to sector peers on a trailing earnings basis. Micron’s forward P/E ratio, as of March 29, 2026, sits at just 6.26 — a figure that ranks the company in the top 5% of the 530-company semiconductor industry on this metric, according to GuruFocus. The compressed forward multiple reflects the consensus that Micron’s earnings will continue to expand sharply in fiscal 2026 and 2027, though investors are now stress-testing that assumption.

Revenue and EPS growth

Total fiscal Q2 revenue was $23.9 billion, up 75% sequentially and up 196% year over year, representing Micron’s fourth consecutive quarterly revenue record. For comparison, Micron reported EPS of $1.56 in the same quarter one year ago — making the fiscal Q2 2026 EPS of $12.20 a year-over-year increase of approximately 682%. Operating income reached $16.5 billion in fiscal Q2, resulting in an operating margin of 69.0%, up 22 percentage points sequentially and 44 percentage points year over year.

Gross margin and guidance

Gross margin expanded to 75% in fiscal Q2, up 18 points, with Q3 guidance projecting revenue of $33.5 billion (±$750 million) and EPS of $19.15 (±$0.40). For fiscal Q3, Micron expects revenue to be a record $33.5 billion ± $750 million, gross margin of approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share ± $0.40. The Q3 gross margin guidance of 81% represents a structural expansion that analysts at Bank of America have characterised as a potential cycle peak, even as the same firm expressed conviction in the longer-term earnings trajectory. See also the latest economic scorecard for the macro backdrop against which these numbers land — including GDP slowing to 0.7% and the Fed holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%.

52-week range and market capitalisation

Micron touched a 52-week high of $471.34 on March 18, 2026 and a 52-week low of $61.54 on April 7, 2025. As of March 29, 2026, Micron is trading at $357.22, with a market capitalisation of approximately $402.85 billion. The 52-week range of $61.54 to $471.34 underscores the extraordinary magnitude of the memory supercycle rally — and, equally, the scope of the drawdown that followed a single earnings event. In the past 12 months, MU had revenue of $58.12 billion and earned $24.11 billion in profits.

The TurboQuant catalyst: what rattled the market

The sell-off did not originate solely from Micron’s own numbers. Alphabet’s Google unveiled TurboQuant, a new compression method that it claims could reduce the amount of memory required to run large language models by six times. Developed by Google researchers, TurboQuant compresses the key-value cache — the high-speed memory store that allows an AI model to retrieve past calculations without reprocessing them — to just 3 bits per value, down from the standard 16.

Google’s latest research, which claims to make AI models more efficient, put pressure on memory stocks globally, with SK Hynix and Samsung falling 6% and nearly 5% respectively in South Korea. The immediate catalyst for Micron specifically was fiscal Q2 2026 earnings that, while strong on the surface, contained two elements rattling investors: a large debt repurchase tender offer and a meaningful step-up in capital expenditure guidance.

The TurboQuant algorithm is, as of now, a laboratory result. It is scheduled to be formally presented at the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) 2026 in late April and has not been deployed at production scale across any major AI infrastructure stack. Counter-intuitively, despite publishing TurboQuant, Google raised its CY26 capital expenditure outlook to approximately $180 billion, up 100% year over year. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya argued that the 6x improvement in memory efficiency is likely to produce a “6x increase in accuracy and/or context length, rather than 6x decrease in memory,” maintaining a $500 price target on the stock.

For additional context on the week’s macro pressures — including the Dow entering correction territory and the S&P 500 posting its fifth straight losing week — see the week ahead preview for March 30, 2026, which outlines the NFP forecast, Nike earnings, and the Good Friday market closure.

What analysts say: consensus rating, average target, and changes this week

The 30 analysts covering Micron Technology have a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” and an average price target of $443.47, which implies a 24.14% increase from current levels over the next 12 months. The TipRanks consensus is also Strong Buy, based on 26 buy ratings, 2 hold ratings, and 0 sell ratings.

The most significant analyst actions this week, following the March 18 earnings release, were broadly bullish on fundamentals while acknowledging elevated near-term risk:

• Bank of America (Vivek Arya): Raised price target to $500 from $400, citing structural confidence in Micron’s long-term outlook.
• Needham & Company: Increased price target from $450.00 to $500.00 and reiterated a “buy” rating on March 19.
• Mizuho (Vijay Rakesh): Lifted price objective from $480.00 to $530.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating on March 19.
• Summit Insights: Lowered Micron from a “buy” rating to a “hold” in a research report on Thursday, March 19.
• Rosenblatt Securities: Restated a “buy” rating and a $500.00 target price.

Wells Fargo TMT analyst Andrew Rocha acknowledged the TurboQuant threat directly, noting it is “directly attacking the cost curve,” but stopped short of a bearish conclusion — arguing that the demand-destruction scenario requires broad adoption, which has not yet occurred. Morgan Stanley pushed back on the selling theme, with semiconductor analyst Shawn Kim calling the stock reaction excessive and arguing that TurboQuant could ultimately benefit memory makers over the longer term.

The divergence between record-setting operational results and the severity of the market reaction raises a question about investor psychology as much as fundamentals. BTIG analysts noted that Micron had not fallen 20% across six days after reaching a 52-week high since 1999, adding: “When good news gets sold, pay attention.” Despite the volatility, Micron’s recent earnings report showcased robust growth, with revenue soaring 196% year over year. The underlying debate — whether TurboQuant represents a structural repricing of AI memory demand or a laboratory result that will be absorbed by expanding model complexity — is unlikely to be resolved before the ICLR 2026 conference in late April and Micron’s next earnings report, currently estimated for June 23, 2026. Management has attributed its step-up in results and guidance to increased AI-driven memory demand, structural supply constraints, and strong execution across all business lines.