NEW YORK — Wall Street opens the month of June with a tailwind at its back — but a geopolitical crosswind developing overhead, as unresolved U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations complicate what would otherwise be a clean continuation of May’s powerful rally.
Across the board, premarket signals tilt positive. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures are ahead 0.6%, Dow futures are gaining 0.1%, and Russell 2000 futures are adding 0.13% at 2,928.10. The VIX — the market’s fear gauge — sits at 15.32, down 2.67% overnight, a reading that reflects complacency more than confidence. Gold is steady at $4,541.80 per troy ounce. WTI crude is pressing toward $90 per barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 4.47%, recovering from three-week lows as the ceasefire premium built into bonds last week begins to erode.
The Streak That Now Demands a Defense
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, up 1.43% on the week — its ninth consecutive weekly gain, the longest such run since 2024 and only the fifth time since 1965 that the index has achieved this. That is a number worth sitting with. May’s performance was not just positive; it was emphatic. The Nasdaq Composite surged more than 8% across May, the S&P 500 gained roughly 5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added nearly 3%.
Technology led the charge, and the AI infrastructure narrative provided the engine. Dell Technologies’ 32% single-session surge on Friday — following a sales outlook that demolished analyst estimates — underscored that enterprise demand for AI buildout is accelerating, not plateauing. Our earlier analysis on whether Dell’s 32% surge is the clearest signal yet in the AI infrastructure race walks through what that print means for the broader capex cycle.
The uncomfortable truth entering June: at these levels, there is no technical resistance above the S&P 500’s current price. Support sits far below, at 7,275, then 7,140, and 7,000. In a trending market, that is fine. In a market where the primary catalysts — ceasefire optimism, AI earnings beats, and Fed pivot hopes — are all at peak pricing simultaneously, the asymmetry of risk shifts. What breaks the trend? A hot ISM number today that rekindles rate fears, an Iran negotiation that collapses rather than resolves, or a jobs report later this week that forces the Fed’s hand. Any one of those is enough.
Iran, Oil, and the Trade That Is Starting to Fray
The dominant geopolitical variable remains the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiation. Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged proposals seeking revisions to a draft deal — language that suggests both sides remain engaged but that a final agreement is not imminent. Reuters reported over the weekend that both parties submitted counter-proposals, a sign the gap between positions has not yet closed.
The oil market is reading this correctly. WTI crude’s climb back toward $90 per barrel this morning directly reflects the market pricing in that ceasefire-driven supply expectations — which had pulled crude lower last week — may have been premature. If talks deteriorate further, the $90 level becomes a floor rather than a ceiling. At $95, energy sector inflation flows back into CPI expectations, the Fed’s window for rate cuts narrows, and the equity market’s current valuation framework becomes harder to defend. For a deeper look at how the ceasefire trade has been evolving, see our analysis on whether the Iran ceasefire deal is already losing the market’s confidence.
The 10-year Treasury yield’s move back to 4.47% from last week’s three-week lows reinforces this reading. Bonds are giving back some of the ceasefire premium. That is not a crisis — 4.47% remains below the pain threshold that rattled equities earlier in the year — but the direction of travel matters. A yield pushing back through 4.55% today would signal the repricing has further to run.
Technology’s Grip — and the HPE Test Ahead
Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports earnings this week, arriving as the AI infrastructure theme is running at full heat. Following Dell’s blowout, HPE is expected to show whether enterprise AI server demand extends beyond Dell’s order book or whether Dell captured a disproportionate share of a finite upgrade cycle. The setup matters: if HPE confirms broad AI infrastructure demand, the technology sector’s leadership position strengthens heading into June. If HPE’s numbers disappoint relative to Dell’s, investors will begin asking whether the sector’s May rally borrowed from June’s return. For context on how AI-driven earnings are reshaping valuations across the sector, our piece on whether Broadcom’s AI forecast can reset the tape for June remains directly relevant.
The Nasdaq 100’s 0.6% premarket advance this morning reflects continued institutional appetite for technology. The sector’s RSI above 70 and the index’s position 7% above its 50-day moving average are textbook overbought signals — but overbought conditions can persist in strong trending markets. The question is not whether the market is extended. It is whether the fundamental catalysts are still arriving fast enough to justify the extension.
This Morning’s Data — What Traders Need to See
The economic calendar today front-loads the macro risk. At 9:45 a.m. ET, the S&P Global PMI Manufacturing final for May arrives — a secondary read, but one that will be parsed for any divergence from the preliminary print. At 10:00 a.m. ET, the double-header: Construction Spending for April and, most critically, ISM Manufacturing for May.
ISM Manufacturing is the print that will set the tone for the session. A reading above 50 — signaling expansion — would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and likely extend equity gains. A hot number with strong prices-paid components would complicate the rate-cut timeline and add pressure to yields. A miss below expectations would raise recession concerns that the market has spent May methodically ignoring. There is no neutral outcome here.
The broader week builds toward Friday’s jobs data — a release that could either validate or upend the entire rate-cut framework the equity rally is priced upon. For a preview of what’s at stake, see our analysis on whether May’s jobs report is the make-or-break moment for rate cut hopes. Note that the Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of the June 6-18 policy window, meaning there are no Fed speakers today to walk back or reinforce market pricing — data stands alone.
| Level / Event | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 support (primary) | 7,275 | First meaningful floor below all-time highs; a close below this level would mark a 4% pullback and end the momentum trade |
| 10-Year Treasury yield — watch level | 4.55% | Break above this resets rate-cut expectations and pressures equity multiples; currently at 4.47% |
| WTI Crude — geopolitical threshold | $90/bbl | Ceasefire uncertainty is the driver; a sustained break above $90 reintroduces energy-driven inflation risk |
| ISM Manufacturing (10:00 a.m. ET) | Release today | Above 50 = expansion; hot prices-paid sub-index is the risk component most likely to move rates and equities simultaneously |
| VIX — complacency marker | 15.32 | Subdued fear gauge; historically, VIX at these levels with RSI above 70 offers limited cushion against surprise data |
Asia Mixed, Europe Data Pending — the Global Tape
Overnight in Asia, the picture was uneven. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.17%, though the Topix slipped 0.3% — a divergence that reflects large-cap tech strength masking broader domestic softness. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.73%, a constructive signal given its sensitivity to U.S.-China trade conditions. The CSI 300 in mainland China fell 0.32%, a reminder that Chinese domestic demand concerns have not disappeared beneath the AI enthusiasm. European markets had not opened at research time, but Friday’s session provided no major negative catalysts — the continent is watching the U.S.-Iran situation and this morning’s ISM print for direction.
Taken together, the global overnight session offers marginal support rather than a strong directional push. Asia’s mixed close means U.S. futures are carrying the morning’s optimism largely on domestic fundamentals — which means today’s 10:00 a.m. data slate carries outsize importance.
What This Morning’s Setup Is Actually Telling You
Strip away the May performance headlines and what you have entering June is a market that has priced a great deal of good news, is technically extended by most conventional measures, and now faces its first real data gauntlet of the new month. The futures bid — S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.6% — is genuine but narrow. The VIX at 15.32 reflects a market that does not expect disruption, which is precisely the condition under which disruptions inflict maximum damage.
Watch the ISM Manufacturing prices-paid component at 10:00 a.m. as carefully as the headline number. Watch the 10-year yield’s reaction to that release — 4.47% heading higher or lower in the next four hours will tell you more about June’s trajectory than any single equity price. And watch WTI crude: if the $90 level holds as support rather than resistance, the Iran uncertainty is not resolving, it is escalating.
A ninth weekly win is possible. It requires the data to cooperate and the geopolitical backdrop to stabilize. Neither is guaranteed on a Monday morning when weekend diplomacy produced revisions instead of resolution. For context on how the market’s current winning streak stacks up historically, see our analysis on whether the ninth straight winning week is built on foundations that can last.
This article is published by PreMarket Daily for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
