Are Jobless Claims Enough to Offset a Hawkish Fed?

Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, down 4,000 from the prior week’s revised 230,000, arriving Thursday morning as traders absorb Wednesday’s hawkish Fed signals. The FOMC revised its median 2026 fed funds rate projection to 3.8% — up from 3.4% in March — and lifted its headline inflation forecast to 3.6%, sending the S&P 500 down 1.21% on Wednesday to close at 7,420.10. S&P 500 futures are pointing marginally higher at 7,498.00 Thursday morning, but the tape remains fragile with the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.50% and the dollar index above 100.